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The
Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB)
project is developing a series of forecasting schemes for precipitation
and flood warning for the monsoon Asia region. These schemes cover short
(1-10 days), medium (15-30 days) and long term (1-6 months) time periods.
The schemes for the short- and long-term forecasts depend on the output
of global forecast models. Medium range forecasting arises from the
development of a new physically based Bayesian statistical method.
All three schemes have been used with some success in the forecasting of
the discharges from the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers into Bangladesh.
Coupled with detailed and existing forecast techniques used within
Bangladesh, these discharge forecasts will prove extremely useful
in agricultural planning, disaster mitigation and water resource
management.
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