LONG- TERM DISCHARGE FORECASTS
Seasonal Forecast - July 2004

For the probability distribution of the discharges for these two rivers, click here or scroll down

In the upper panel, red lines shows the distribution of the ensemble members. The solid blue line is the ensemble mean. The two dashed lines are one standard deviation. The black dashed line is the observed climate mean. The lower panel shows the probability distribution of the forecast. For example, the red bar shows the number of the forecast members inside 0.25 standard deviation of the climate value.

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Probability Distributions of the Discharges

for the Monsoon Season

The probability distribution of discharge during the monsoon season for the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins initialised from July 1st and forcasting for the average
a) August , b) September and c) October.

The pie charts depict the amount of discharge with the water flux values ranging from <0.3 to >1.3 (*10³ m³/m). For example: in the July-July plot there is a 35% chance of 0.92*10³ m³/m discharge and in the July-July pie chart there is a 34.9% chance of between 0.9-1.1 (*10³ m³/m).

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July - August

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July - September

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July - October

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