CFAB - Long Term (seasonal) River Discharge Forecasts

LONG- TERM DISCHARGE FORECASTS
Seasonal Forecast - Apr 2007

For the probability distribution of the discharges for these two rivers, click here or scroll down

In the upper panel, red lines shows the distribution of the ensemble members. The solid blue line is the ensemble mean. The two dashed lines are one standard deviation. The black dashed line is the observed climate mean. The lower panel shows the probability distribution of the forecast. For example, the red bar shows the number of the forecast members inside 0.25 standard deviation of the climate value.

Click here for Brahmaputra.eps Ganges.eps and Brahmaputra.pdf Ganges.pdf files

April 2007 Brahmaputra long range forecast

Probability Distributions of the Discharges

for the Monsoon Season

The probability distribution of discharge during the monsoon season for the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins initialised from May 1st and forcasting for the average
Brahmaputra a) June, b) July, c) August d) September and e)October.

Ganges a) June, b) July, c) August d) September and e)October.

The pie charts depict the amount of discharge with the water flux values ranging from <0.3 to >1.3 (*10³ m³/m). For example: in the May-June plot there is a 28% chance of 0.29*10³ m³/m discharge and in the May-June pie chart there is a 83.7% chance of between 0.3-0.5 (*10³ m³/m).

Click here for Brahmaputra .eps and .pdf files Click here for Ganges .eps and .pdf files

May - June

May-June