LONG- TERM DISCHARGE FORECASTS
Current seasonal forecast

April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008

In the upper panel, red lines shows the distribution of the ensemble members. The solid blue line is the ensemble mean. The two dashed lines are one standard deviation. The black dashed line is the observed climate mean. The lower panel shows the probability distribution of the forecast. For example, the red bar shows the number of the forecast members inside 0.25 standard deviation of the climate value.