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ENSEMBLE DISCHARGE FORECASTS, 1-10 days
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In this section we present current ensemble discharge forecasts for the Ganges River
at Hardinge Bridge gaging station, and for the Brahmaputra River at Bahadurabad gaging
station. The plots below present our 1-day up to 10-day in-advance forecasts for the
river discharge at the respective gaging stations. Shown in these plots are 51
individual ensemble member (colored lines) forecasts.
The variance of the ensemble members represent an estimate of the range of uncertainty
we expect in our forecasts. The ensemble members were derived by incorporating both
the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts as represented by the ECMWF ensemble dispersion,
along with all other aspects of
uncertainty in our hydrological forecasts models.
For comparison purposes, plotted along with our forecasts are the most recent
river-discharge observations (rating-curve derived) from the Flood Forecasting
and Warning Centre of Bangladesh, given by the solid black line.
The dashed horizontal line is the discharge corresponding to the “Danger
Level” stage height for the respective river. The danger levels are water
levels significantly above normal flood levels, and represent the potential for
loss of life and severe infrastructure damage. The vertical line marks the last
date our forecasts were initialized, and represents the beginning of the forecast horizon.
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Labelled with ICRA
